The Jonathan Journal


A space to share my thoughts on sports, entertainment and anything else I want to talk about


Predicting the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs

After a long and grueling NHL season, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are here. As a massive NHL fan myself, this is probably my favorite sporting event in the world, with only March Madness coming particularly close. Needless to say, I’m thrilled to have playoff hockey back in my life, especially with such an amazing field this season.

On one hand, you have playoff regulars like the Bruins and Avalanche still thriving and pushing for another Stanley Cup. On the other hand, there’s new teams like the Devils and Kraken who are hoping to break through on the big stage. With such a nice blend of old and new faces, these playoffs should be an electric experience once again.

Of course, part of the fun for any playoffs is trying to predict what will happen. Seeing as I just started this blog, I feel like this would be a perfect first article for me. With that said, here are my predictions for the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs that will probably age horribly in a week.

First Round

Boston Bruins (A1) vs Florida Panthers (WC2)

What else is there to say about Boston that hasn’t been said already? The Bruins just had the most dominant regular season of all time, setting NHL records with 65 wins and 135 points. They’ve been a force of nature this season, and beating them four times in seven games will be a Herculean task.

On the other hand, Florida, who won the President’s Trophy last season, had to claw its way back here. Things were looking dire for the Panthers after a poor start, but they rounded into form just in time to clinch the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. I’m not a Panthers fan at all, but I have to give them credit for digging themselves out of this hole. Perhaps they could perform better this season now that they don’t have the pressure of the President’s Trophy on them.

As much as I would love to predict a Panthers sweep to humble the Bruins, I just can’t. Unlike other historically dominant teams in the past, the Bruins don’t strike me as a team that will fall apart in the playoffs. Yes, they have a ton of skill, but guys like Trent Frederic, Garnet Hathaway and Brad Marchand give them the grit to thrive in the postseason. Add in the fact that they are much better on defense and in net, and the Bruins are the clear choice for me.

Prediction: Bruins in 5

Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (A3)

Oh boy, this isn’t going to be fun. If you know me, you know that I am a diehard fan of the Tampa Bay Lightning, they’re my favorite team in professional sports. Even with my incredibly biased perspective, I can’t pick the Lightning in this series with confidence.

Since Feb. 15, Tampa Bay has posted an awful record of just 11-14-4. That’s a points percentage of .448, lower than the Flyers posted this season. The Lightning’s depth has also taken a major hit since last season, with Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat out. The defense has looked particularly shaky, and Andrei Vasilevsky hasn’t had a great season by his standards.

Yes, we all know the memes about how Toronto can’t win a series, and they are very funny. However, the Maple Leafs have looked like the much better team and went an impressive 7-1-2 over their last 10. I also love their trade deadline acquisitions, and recent college signee Matthew Knies is an excellent addition.

All of this means that, sadly, I am picking the Leafs to win this series. However, I will add that the Lightning have the clear advantage in net, and that’s huge in the playoffs. Additionally, I don’t think the Leafs can afford to let this series go seven games, given their past struggles there. Still, I think this is the year they finally shed their demons.

Prediction: Maple Leafs in 6

Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. New York Islanders (WC2)

I have to give credit to the NHL scriptwriters, they managed to create the most boring series possible. I kid (somewhat), but two teams so heavily skewed towards defense doesn’t’ make for a particularly intriguing matchup in my opinion. Still, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I just skimmed over this series.

Carolina may have the second-best record in the league, but I’m not particularly high on them. They haven’t looked that great in the last month, being shut out four times in that time.

The Islanders have also had their struggles throughout the season, but I favor them for a few reasons. First, they’re getting Mat Barzal back in this series, which should give their offense an added punch. Second, they have one of the NHL’s best goalies in Ilya Sorokin, who’s nearly guaranteed to be a Vezina finalist. Third, this team has always done more with less, with deep runs in 2020 and 2021. Barry Trotz may be gone, but Lane Lambert is his protege and most of the team is still intact.

Prediction: Islanders in 6

New Jersey Devils (M2) vs. New York Rangers (M3)

On the other hand, we now have the most exciting series of the first round. These two teams absolutely hate each other, with many classic playoff showdowns over the years. Both of them are now contenders with bright futures, so we should see many more playoff meetings soon.

New Jersey has finally broken out of a deep rebuild, finishing with 49 more points than last year. With stars like Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton and deadline acquisition Timo Meier, the Devils are one of the most exciting teams in the league. On the other hand, New York has built on last season’s run to the Eastern Conference Final. The Rangers boast stars such as Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox, and bolstered their lineup at the deadline with Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane.

In the end, my pick for this series comes down to one thing, goaltending. Vitek Vanecek is no slouch, but Igor Shesterkin is among the league’s elite. With the teams being so similar elsewhere, I feel that Igor will be the difference in a very entertaining series.

Prediction: Rangers in 7

Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs Winnipeg Jets (WC2)

This is easily the first-round series I’m the most uncertain about. At first, I thought Vegas would roll over Winnipeg due to being the much better team lately. As I looked at it more though, I began to have a change of heart.

The thing that really concerns me with the Golden Knights is their goaltending. Logan Thompson is still dealing with injury, Jonathan Quick hasn’t been great this season and Laurent Brossoit, who likely starts the playoffs, has only played 11 games this season. Meanwhile, the Jets have Connor Hellebuyck, arguably the best goalie in the Western Conference.

Winnipeg will obviously have to get its act together, as Rick Bowness has called out the team’s effort lately. If the Jets can do that though, I fell that they can upset Vegas.

Prediction: Jets in 7

Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs Los Angeles Kings (P3)

I feel that this series would have been much more exciting if it started a couple weeks ago. At that time, both Edmonton and Los Angeles were red-hot and pushing for the top spot in the Pacific division. However, the tide has turned in the home stretch of the season.

The Oilers have been one of the best teams in the league lately, closing the season winning nine straight and 14 of 15. The Kings were also playing very well, but ended the season losing five of nine.

Don’t get me wrong, this series should still be great as a rematch of last year’s first-round matchup. However, with the Oilers playing so incredibly well lately, it’s hard not to pick them.

Prediction: Oilers in 6

Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs Seattle Kraken (WC1)

The defending champions begin their title defense with a matchup against a team making its first playoff appearance in its second season of existence. Seattle is a very good team no doubt, able to roll four lines and quietly being one of the best offenses in the league. They’re arguably the feel-good story in the NHL, but I have to go with Colorado here.

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Avalanche have a glutton of talent, including Nathan McKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. The Kraken have depth, but their high-end talent is nowhere near that of the Avalanche. I also give Colorado the advantage in net. Alexandar Georgiev may be unproven in the playoffs, but I’d definitely take him over Seattle’s duo of Martin Jones and former Av Philipp Grubauer, both of whom had a save percentage under .900 this season.

I could see the Kraken extending this series longer than I’ve projected, but I think their chances to win are slim. Still an excellent season for the fledgling franchise, but the Avalanche will just be too much.

Prediction: Avalanche in 5

Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Minnesota Wild (C3)

Another very intriguing series, this one features Minnesota and the team that used to call Minnesota home. That’s already a good storyline, but there’s much more than just that.

These two teams are very close, but have very different strengths. On paper, Dallas has scored more goals and allowed fewer, and has a better goalie in Jake Oettinger. However, Minnesota has the better depth in my opinion, especially on defense. That depth can do a long way in the playoffs, which bodes well for Minnesota.

That said, I do slightly lean towards the Stars in this series. It will be close, but I feel that their advantages are just a bit more important than Minnesota’s.

Prediction: Stars in 7

Second Round

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Now if this isn’t a classic matchup. Unlike other recent matchups between Toronto and Boston, though, this one would be in the second round. With the monkey finally off their back, can the Leafs shed more demons and beat the team that has tormented them for so long?

I think they might, there’s no doubt that they have the talent to do so. However, Boston also has an insane amount of talent, and is superior on defense and in net. It will be a very tight series, but I have the Bruins moving on by the skin of their teeth.

Prediction: Bruins in 7

New York Islanders vs. New York Rangers

Another old rivalry reignited, although these two teams haven’t seen each other in a very long time. The last time they met in the playoffs was back in 1994, where the Rangers swept the Islanders in the first round en route to a Stanley Cup. Despite not seeing each other for so long, there’s no lost between these two bitter foes.

In my opinion, the Islanders have a slight advantage on defense, but the Rangers have a substantial advantage on offense, and they’re about even in net. I don’t doubt that Sorokin can take over this series, but Shesterkin can just as easily. When the goalie showdown is this close, I give the team with more firepower the edge.

Prediction: Rangers in 5

Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers

Think back to 2021, the last time these two teams met in the playoffs. Despite being a sizable underdog, Winnipeg shockingly swept Edmonton out of the playoffs in the first round. Should these two teams meet again, I expect a very different result.

The Jets definitely have the advantage in net, but Stuart Skinner is no slouch for the Oilers. Elsewhere, I give the Oilers a sizable advantage on both offense and defense. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl still playing like gods, as they have been all season, I think the Oilers win decisively.

Prediction: Oilers in 5

Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars

Much like the last series, this one also features two teams who have met each other recently. In 2020, the Stars upset the injury-riddled Avalanche in a thrilling seven-game series. So, will I also predict this series to have a different result as well?

Here’s the thing, Colorado has more talent and could easily win this series, and the Stanley Cup, for that matter. However, the big concern I have with them is their center depth. Nazem Kadri played a huge part in the Avalanche’s cup run a year ago, and I don’t know if J.T. Compher and Lars Eller can replace that. The Stars will need Oettinger to take over if they want to win, but as we saw last year, he is more than capable of doing so. This will likely age horribly, but I think Dallas barely edges out the defending champs.

Prediction: Stars in 7

Conference Finals

Boston Bruins vs. New York Rangers

Despite the Bruins and Rangers not having much playoff history, any time Boston and New York meet in the playoffs, in any sport, is sure to bring bad blood. Many are expecting the Bruins to dance their way to a Stanley Cup, and it’s understandable with how incredible they’ve been this year. However, I’m not quite as convinced.

If the games were decided on paper, then Boston would steamroll everyone en route to a championship, but that’s not how it works. Defeating the Bruins in a series is a big ask, but of all the teams in the Eastern Conference, I feel the Rangers have the best chance to do so. They have a terrific mix of offense, defense and goaltending with a ton of star power. Call me crazy (and you’re probably right), but I think the Rangers end Boston’s immaculate season.

Prediction: Rangers in 7

Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars

In a series featuring a team named the Stars, it’s ironic that the biggest stars play for Edmonton. Jokes aside, this will be a throwback series, as these two teams met in five straight years from 1997 to 2001 and again in 2003, with Dallas winning all but one of those matchups. Despite that history, I feel much more confident about Edmonton in this series.

For years, many have derided the Oilers for just being McDavid, Draisaitl and everyone else. With the addition of players like Zach Hyman, Evander Kane and Mattias Ekholm over the last two years, though, they have quietly built a very good roster around their two superstars. I like what the Stars have built, but I think the Oilers just have too much firepower.

Prediction: Oilers in 6

Stanley Cup Final

New York Rangers vs. Edmonton Oilers

I don’t think I exaggerate when I say that this would be one of the best Stanley Cup Finals in recent memory. While both the Rangers and Oilers have had some success recently, neither has won a cup since the 90s so they would still be fresh faces. It also helps that these two teams have arguably the most star power in the league, and there’s no better to show it than in the finals.

As you’ve probably noticed throughout these predictions, I am very high on Edmonton this year. Their offense is just absurd, and McDavid is a man on a mission. Shesterkin and the Rangers will be the toughest test of this run, but I think McDavid gets it done and wins his first cup, as well as the first for Canada in 30 years.

Prediction: Oilers in 7


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3 responses to “Predicting the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs”

  1. Jimmy Avatar
    Jimmy

    Great stuff Jon

  2. Gerry Avatar
    Gerry

    Always fresh insights from you JA! Look forward to many more. Thanks for sharing.
    PS. I can’t argue your logic, but can’t bring myself to bet against the Bolts.

  3. […] for me, it came at the expense of my beloved Tampa Bay Lightning, who fell in six games just like I predicted. Man, I’ve never been so sad to get a prediction exactly […]